홈앤서비스 SK BROADBAND

주식 투자에 성공하려면
머니 사이클부터 알자!

돈의 성질은 무엇일까? 이 책은 투자에서 가장 중요한 요소인 돈의 성질을 이해해야 투자 시장에서 살아남을 수 있다고 말한다. 여기저기 돌아다니고, 도저히 잡을 수 없을 것 같은 ‘돈’이지만 자세히 살펴보면 그 흐름에도 규칙성이 있다. 지은이는 경제 순환에 따른 이러한 돈의 움직임을 ‘머니 사이클’이라고 부른다. 수십 년간의 주식 투자 노하우를 바탕으로 주식 투자 전문가과정을 운영하고 있고, 대학에서 강의 및 유튜브와 각종 경제 방송에 출연하는 지은이의 투자 경험을 최대한 살려 경제 상황에 맞춰 머니 사이클을 설명한다.

머니 사이클의 움직임과 각 경제 상황, 그리고 다른 자산 시장에 대한 이해가 가능하도록 실전적인 측면에서 다루고 있고, 다소 어려울 수 있는 경제 흐름을 이해하기 쉽게 설명한다. 경제 이론서보다는 철저히 투자자 입장에서 경험을 바탕으로 꼭 알아야 할 내용만 엄선했기에 이 책 한 권만 제대로 이해해도 실전 투자에 큰 도움이 될 것이다. 거대 자본의 흐름을 이해하고 따라가다 보면 어느새 실패하지 않는 성공 투자에 한 걸음 가까워져 있을 것이다.

프롤로그·································································································4

PART 01
주식, 투자, 산업, 경제, 기회, 머니 사이클에 미치는 요소들

금리 - 경기의 방향을 알게 해주는 기준금리···················································16
주식 투자 TIP 금리를 인상하면 나쁘다. 과연 그럴까?·····························21
미국 연방준비제도의 정책을 잘 이해하자···············································22
금리 인하 시 효과 - 대세 상승의 시그널················································25
금리 정책과 경제 순환·······································································30
주식 투자 TIP 은행은 고금리를 좋아한다. 과연 그럴까?··························33

환율 - 환율로 보는 거대 투자자들의 심리·····················································34
미국의 금리가 인상되면 달러 가치는 오른다?··········································40
미국 10년물 국채 가격 등락을 통한 환율의 움직임 파악하기·······················44
주식 투자 TIP 환율과 주식 시장 등락은 반비례한다·······························47

원자재 - 실질 경제 상황을 알 수 있는 원자재 가격··········································48
1배럴은 몇 리터고, 얼마일까?·····························································51
원자재 가격과 주식 시장의 등락··························································53
물가가 오르는 이유와 앞으로는 오르기 쉽지 않은 이유······························54
주식 투자 TIP 원자재에 투자하면 좋다. 과연 그럴까?·····························58
채권 - 자산의 흐름을 알 수 있는 채권의 움직임··············································59
채권 수익률이란··············································································62
국채는 기준금리와 연동된다·······························································65
미국 정부의 채권 발행은 채권국에게 고통을 전이하는 행위·························67
미국의 경기 상황을 예측할 수 있는 예언 지표! 장단기 채권 스프레드·············68
미국의 경기 상황과 장단기 채권 스프레드의 역전금리·······························72
주식 투자 TIP 인플레이션과 채권의 관계············································76

세계 정세 - 투자자는 관심의 폭을 넓게 가져야 한다········································77
인플레이션, 스테그플레이션, 디플레이션, 리플레이션······································80

PART 02
머니 사이클과 경제 순환

1단계 경기 회복기···················································································88
미국 기준금리 인상 시작(저금리 기조 유지)················································88
FED 양적 완화 정책·········································································90
부동산 가격의 상승··········································································92
외국인 장세 - 개인 투자자의 무관심·····················································94
주식 투자 전략 성장주 IT 저점 매수 기회·············································96

2단계 경기 성장기···················································································97
실적 장세 - 이동평균선이 정배열을 이루는 강세장···································97
기관 투자자 그룹의 장세····································································99
부동산 가격의 상승세····································································· 100
원자재 가격의 상승세 - 인플레이션 정상 작동 중··································· 101
FED의 금리와 통화 정책································································· 102
달러 약세 지속과 각국의 환율 강세····················································· 104
주식 투자 전략 가치주, 홀딩 전략 지속············································· 106

3단계 경기 안정기(정점)·········································································· 107
개인 투자자 그룹의 주식 시장 참여 확대·············································· 108
미국의 기준금리 인상으로 인한 금융 비용 상승세··································· 110
부동산 시장의 과열 및 둔화······························································ 111
FED의 통화정책 - 긴축 정책 종료····················································· 114
미국의 장단기 채권 스프레드의 변화를 예의 주시 - 역전금리···················· 115
경기 과열에 따른 둔화 우려······························································ 118
원자재 가격 강세에서 약세로 전환······················································ 119
급등주, 테마주, 우선주가 극성·························································· 120
각종 금융상품 가입의 증가······························································· 122
안전 자산을 선호하기 시작······························································· 125
환율 강세 및 각국의 환율 약세 전환···················································· 127
폭풍 전야···················································································· 128
주식 투자 전략 현금 비중 확대, 대형주 위주, 미국 주식························· 130

4단계 경기 붕괴 - 다시 시작되는 투자 시계················································· 131
버블 붕괴 현실화(블랙 스완)······························································· 131
미국 기준금리의 급격한 인하···························································· 134
미국 연준의 양적 완화 정책 재가동····················································· 135
급격한 환율 변동성········································································ 137
원자재 가격 및 유가 변동성 심화······················································· 138
미국 장단기 채권 스프레드의 ‘+’ 전환 준비·········································· 140
주식 투자 전략 자산 버블 붕괴로 최저가 매수 기회······························ 141
제2차 버블 그리고 자산 사이클의 새로운 시작······································· 143

5단계 경기 하락기················································································· 146
주식 시장의 진정··········································································· 146
환율의 안정·················································································· 150
각국의 양적 완화 진행····································································· 151
미국 장단기 채권 스프레드의 약세 유지··············································· 153
실물 경기는 최악인데 주식 시장은 상승하는 이유··································· 154
주식 투자 전략 대형주 위주, 미국 주식 시장 상승세 유지······················· 157
금값 폭등···················································································· 159

6단계 경기 둔화 & 침체기······································································· 162
기업의 본격적인 구조조정 진행························································· 162
부동산 가격의 하락세····································································· 164
주식 투자 전략 경기 방어주의 상승세··············································· 166
각국 중앙은행의 양적 완화 정책과 저금리 정책 기조 유지························· 167
재테크 무관심의 시기····································································· 167
경기 침체와 물가 상승 둔화······························································ 169

7단계 경기 침체 & 바닥 시기··································································· 171
양적 완화 정책 혹은 저금리 정책 기조는 진행 중···································· 171
금값의 하락과 원자재 가격의 상승 기지개············································ 173
각 정부의 실물 경기 부양책(부동산 시장 활성화)········································ 175
다시 시작되는 경기 사이클······························································· 176
새로운 10년 주기는 새로운 부의 시작이다··················································· 179
경제 순환과 머니 사이클, 그리고 우리 인생의 주기········································ 183
경기 순환이 일어나는 근본적인 이유는 무엇일까?········································· 189
각 경기별 주식 투자 전략은 수급을 이해하면 된다········································· 193

PART 03
주식, 투자, 산업, 경제, 기회, 머니 사이클에 미치는 영향들

인플레이션에 대한 이해와 투자 전략(통화량)················································· 198
돈은 살아 움직이는 생물이다··································································· 201
자본주의의 본질은 미국 주식 시장의 상승에서 답을 찾을 수 있다······················ 205
미국 연준의 통화 정책의 본질은 물가 안정에 있다. 그런데 왜?·························· 207
돈이 시중에 있는지 아니면 은행에 있는지 알아야 한다···································· 210
기업은 인플레이션을 먹고 자란다······························································ 214
물가에 미치는 주요 3요소······································································· 216
미래 인플레이션의 가능성은 있을까?························································· 219
경기 둔화시기에는 사기, 작전이 극성을 부린다············································· 222
신규 태동산업의 성장 필수 조건과 주식 시장················································ 225
통상적으로 조정장은 따로 있다································································ 229
환율과 경제 흐름, 그리고 주식 시장··························································· 234
전쟁이 주식 시장에 어떤 영향을 미치는가?·················································· 237
신경제 체제에서는 모두가 투자자이며 쉽게 부자가 될 수 있다·························· 240
주식 시장과 부동산 중 어느 자산 시장이 경제와 소비에 더 영향을 줄까?············· 244
인플레이션 유형별 자산 시장의 수익률 비교 및 해석······································ 246
한국에서 자산 증식은 어떻게 하면 좋을까?·················································· 251
각 자산의 흐름도 - 채권, 주식, 경제, 부동산················································ 255
부동산, 주식, 산업의 주기성 중첩 시·························································· 258
메릴린치의 투자 시계, 그리고 4차 산업······················································ 263
주식 투자는 수급을 볼 줄 알아야 한다························································ 267
투자 플러스 투자 심리학에서 언론 매체란?··············································· 273